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Educated women delaying having families due to recession

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Summary of story from The Guardian, June 30, 2011

Young, highly educated women in rich countries are putting off having children because of the recession, according to leading demographers.

A study for the European Union by the Vienna Institute of Demography showed that if the world-wide recession and government austerity programmes continue, some may even wait a further five to eight years to start a family.

The study showed a steep decline in fertility rates in the US and Spain in 2009-10, and virtual stagnation in Ireland and most other European countries.

However, recent UK government figures show that the population in Britain actually rose by 470,000 in 2010, the biggest growth rate for nearly 50 years, with the population now standing at 62.2m.

The reason for this rise was natural change rather than immigration, according to the Office for National Statistics.

One of the reports authors, Tomáš Sobotka, said “If this is the case, then Britain joins the very few countries who are increasing their fertility rate despite the recession. It is possible this is because the educated women are choosing to delay having while the less educated are having more.”

According to the report: “Highly educated women react to employment uncertainty by adopting a ‘postponement strategy’, especially if they are childless. In contrast, less-educated women often maintain or increase their fertility under economic uncertainty.”

However, it also reveals that the patterns differ for men. “Those with low education and low skills face increasing difficulty in finding a partner or in supporting their family, and often show the largest decline in first child birth rates.”

A global recession has meant an increase in unemployment, failing consumer confidence, tighter credit and falling house prices, all of which are contributing factors to the birth rates, says the study.

In the year prior to the current recession, 26 out of 27 EU countries saw birth rates increase,  but by 2009, 13 countries saw a decline in fertility rates, with a further four countries experiencing no change.

The report goes on to predict that birth rates will be further arrested in Greece, Britain, Ireland, Spain and elsewhere due to the massive cuts in social spending.

“This may prolong the fertility impact of the recent recession well beyond its end. It could lead to a double dip fertility decline,” said Sobotka.

“A typical result of a recession in the past was [a lower birth rate for] 2-5 years. Put together with cuts in public spending and you could get [declines] of 5-8 years.”

In previous recessions, women have generally postponed having children until the economy improves,  but predictions say the present recession could have a more permanent effect on birth rates.

“Women’s age at first birth has reached around 28 in most European countries and Japan,” Sobotka said. “This leaves women and couples less flexibility to postpone parenthood until a later age.”

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